Effective:

2025-02-27T15:37:00-05:00

Expires:

2025-03-06T15:00:00-05:00

Certainty:

Possible

Event:

Hydrologic Outlook

Type:

Alert

Severity:

Unknown

Urgency:

Future

Areas:

Emmet; Cheboygan; Presque Isle; Leelanau; Antrim; Otsego; Montmorency; Alpena; Benzie; Grand Traverse; Kalkaska; Crawford; Oscoda; Alcona; Manistee; Wexford; Missaukee; Roscommon; Ogemaw; Iosco; Gladwin; Arenac; Western Chippewa; Central Chippewa; Southeast Chippewa; Western Mackinac; Eastern Mackinac; Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island; Beaver Island and surrounding islands; Charlevoix

ESFAPX The Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michigan indicates a near to above average probability of flooding due to snow melt within major eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan river basins. This outlook covers Chippewa and Mackinac counties in eastern Upper Michigan which includes the Pine River Basin...and the northern half of Lower Michigan encompassing Au Sable...Boardman...Manistee... Rifle...and Tobacco River basins. The first table below lists the probabilities of reaching flood stage (minor flooding)...as well as moderate and major flood levels for the six forecast points within the Gaylord National Weather Service office Hydrologic Service Area. Current (CS) and historical (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...TABLE 1: Probabilities for Minor...Moderate and Major Flooding... Valid Period: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 57 12 7 <5 <5 <5 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 50 12 13 <5 <5 <5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 69 64 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET Departure from normal of reaching flood stage is the difference between the current projected chance for reaching flood stage (CS) and the climatological normal (HS). For example...the Manistee River near Sherman...with a Flood Stage of 15 feet...has a 57 percent chance of reaching or exceeding flood stage. This is 45 percentage points above normal. During the 90 day period listed... the typical probability of the Manistee River near Sherman reaching flood stage is 12 percent. The next table shows the chance that a particular river location could rise above the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (high flow forecast): ...TABLE 2: Exceedance Probabilities... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 5.7 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.9 9.5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 7.2 8.0 9.8 11.1 12.9 13.9 15.0 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.0 8.2 8.9 Current forecasts suggest probabilities of exceeding flood stage are around 50 percent on the Manistee River near Sherman...the Au Sable River near Red Oak...and the Rifle River near Sterling. Elsewhere the probability of exceeding flood stage is less than 5 percent. The last table indicates the chance that a particular river location could fall below the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (low flow forecast): ...TABLE 3: Non-exceedance Probabilities... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued in February and March in order to give advance notice of possible flooding. The long range probabilistic outlooks given in the above tables contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...and incorporated current river levels...soil moisture conditions...snow water equivalent values...as well as 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation provided by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center. Actual river crests will differ from this outlook if future conditions differ significantly from forecast conditions...or if ice jams develop. ...Current Conditions... Above normal snowfall and snowpack is contributing to the above normal flood probabilities at several gaging locations across northern Michigan. Precipitation through the Summer months (June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the Fall months (September-November) started out below normal for September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend. December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2 inches)... Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches). January 2025 precipitation was largely dependent on location relative to the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred mainly between Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the north and south respectively)...the typical Lake Michigan snow belt regions. Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to Whitefish Bay. Sault Ste. Marie recorded their second snowiest January on record (58.4 inches). Through the first three weeks of February...total seasonal snowfall is running 125 to 175 percent of normal across northern Michigan. Sault Ste. Marie...Gaylord...Traverse City...and Houghton Lake have all exceeded their normal seasonal snowfall total. Liquid equivalent precipitation so far this month is running above normal across northern Lower...with 200 to 300 percent of normal across interior northern Lower from M-55 north to M-32. Across eastern Upper above normal (100-150 percent of normal) precipitation has occurred around the west side of Whitefish Bay...with precipitation a bit below normal across eastern portions of Mackinac and Chippewa counties. Snow water equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michigan is generally 2 to 6 inches across Mackinac and southeast Chippewa county...and from 6 to 9 inches across the remainder of Chippewa county. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent ranges from 2 to 4 inches across northeast Lower...and 4 to 7 inches across northwest Lower with highest values east of Grand Traverse Bay within the traditional Lake Michigan snow belt. These SWE values are all normal except across Mackinac county where snow water equivalent is in the 30th percentile. Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal on the Au Sable and Manistee Rivers. Rivers are running near normal elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity. Lingering D2 (Severe) Drought conditions continue across parts of Oscoda...Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties. Moderate (D1) Drought conditions also continue across parts of Presque Isle...Leelanau...Montmorency...Alpena...Benzie...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Manistee...Wexford...and Missaukee counties. ...Weather Outlook... The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center valid for the period of March 5-9 2025 is leaning toward near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The outlook for the Spring (March through May) indicates no discernible trend with regard to temperatures (equal probabilities for above...normal...and below normal temperatures)...and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation. ...Additional Information... The next Spring Flood outlook will be issued on Thursday March 13, 2025. Long range probabilistic outlooks such as those given in the above tables are issues during the last week of each month throughout the year. Visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/apx for more river information...including graphs of the probabilistic information given in the above tables... the latest observed conditions on northern Michigan streams...as well as analyses of precipitation and snowfall.

Instruction:

Effective:

2025-02-27T15:37:00-05:00

Expires:

2025-03-06T15:00:00-05:00

Certainty:

Possible

Event:

Hydrologic Outlook

Type:

Alert

Severity:

Unknown

Urgency:

Future

Areas:

Emmet; Cheboygan; Presque Isle; Leelanau; Antrim; Otsego; Montmorency; Alpena; Benzie; Grand Traverse; Kalkaska; Crawford; Oscoda; Alcona; Manistee; Wexford; Missaukee; Roscommon; Ogemaw; Iosco; Gladwin; Arenac; Western Chippewa; Central Chippewa; Southeast Chippewa; Western Mackinac; Eastern Mackinac; Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island; Beaver Island and surrounding islands; Charlevoix

ESFAPX The Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michigan indicates a near to above average probability of flooding due to snow melt within major eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan river basins. This outlook covers Chippewa and Mackinac counties in eastern Upper Michigan which includes the Pine River Basin...and the northern half of Lower Michigan encompassing Au Sable...Boardman...Manistee... Rifle...and Tobacco River basins. The first table below lists the probabilities of reaching flood stage (minor flooding)...as well as moderate and major flood levels for the six forecast points within the Gaylord National Weather Service office Hydrologic Service Area. Current (CS) and historical (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS: the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...TABLE 1: Probabilities for Minor...Moderate and Major Flooding... Valid Period: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 57 12 7 <5 <5 <5 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 50 12 13 <5 <5 <5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 69 64 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET Departure from normal of reaching flood stage is the difference between the current projected chance for reaching flood stage (CS) and the climatological normal (HS). For example...the Manistee River near Sherman...with a Flood Stage of 15 feet...has a 57 percent chance of reaching or exceeding flood stage. This is 45 percentage points above normal. During the 90 day period listed... the typical probability of the Manistee River near Sherman reaching flood stage is 12 percent. The next table shows the chance that a particular river location could rise above the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (high flow forecast): ...TABLE 2: Exceedance Probabilities... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 5.7 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.9 9.5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 7.2 8.0 9.8 11.1 12.9 13.9 15.0 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.0 8.2 8.9 Current forecasts suggest probabilities of exceeding flood stage are around 50 percent on the Manistee River near Sherman...the Au Sable River near Red Oak...and the Rifle River near Sterling. Elsewhere the probability of exceeding flood stage is less than 5 percent. The last table indicates the chance that a particular river location could fall below the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (low flow forecast): ...TABLE 3: Non-exceedance Probabilities... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued in February and March in order to give advance notice of possible flooding. The long range probabilistic outlooks given in the above tables contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...and incorporated current river levels...soil moisture conditions...snow water equivalent values...as well as 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation provided by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center. Actual river crests will differ from this outlook if future conditions differ significantly from forecast conditions...or if ice jams develop. ...Current Conditions... Above normal snowfall and snowpack is contributing to the above normal flood probabilities at several gaging locations across northern Michigan. Precipitation through the Summer months (June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the Fall months (September-November) started out below normal for September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend. December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2 inches)... Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches). January 2025 precipitation was largely dependent on location relative to the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred mainly between Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the north and south respectively)...the typical Lake Michigan snow belt regions. Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to Whitefish Bay. Sault Ste. Marie recorded their second snowiest January on record (58.4 inches). Through the first three weeks of February...total seasonal snowfall is running 125 to 175 percent of normal across northern Michigan. Sault Ste. Marie...Gaylord...Traverse City...and Houghton Lake have all exceeded their normal seasonal snowfall total. Liquid equivalent precipitation so far this month is running above normal across northern Lower...with 200 to 300 percent of normal across interior northern Lower from M-55 north to M-32. Across eastern Upper above normal (100-150 percent of normal) precipitation has occurred around the west side of Whitefish Bay...with precipitation a bit below normal across eastern portions of Mackinac and Chippewa counties. Snow water equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michigan is generally 2 to 6 inches across Mackinac and southeast Chippewa county...and from 6 to 9 inches across the remainder of Chippewa county. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent ranges from 2 to 4 inches across northeast Lower...and 4 to 7 inches across northwest Lower with highest values east of Grand Traverse Bay within the traditional Lake Michigan snow belt. These SWE values are all normal except across Mackinac county where snow water equivalent is in the 30th percentile. Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal on the Au Sable and Manistee Rivers. Rivers are running near normal elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity. Lingering D2 (Severe) Drought conditions continue across parts of Oscoda...Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties. Moderate (D1) Drought conditions also continue across parts of Presque Isle...Leelanau...Montmorency...Alpena...Benzie...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Manistee...Wexford...and Missaukee counties. ...Weather Outlook... The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center valid for the period of March 5-9 2025 is leaning toward near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The outlook for the Spring (March through May) indicates no discernible trend with regard to temperatures (equal probabilities for above...normal...and below normal temperatures)...and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation. ...Additional Information... The next Spring Flood outlook will be issued on Thursday March 13, 2025. Long range probabilistic outlooks such as those given in the above tables are issues during the last week of each month throughout the year. Visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/apx for more river information...including graphs of the probabilistic information given in the above tables... the latest observed conditions on northern Michigan streams...as well as analyses of precipitation and snowfall.

Instruction: